What the world’s 2024 elections mean for chemistry

At least 70 countries have had or will have national elections in 2024, directly affecting more than 40% of the world’s population. While chemistry and science in general aren’t typically central campaign issues themselves, research and development, education, and other chemistry-related issues often are. The full implications of the elections included in this report have yet to become clear, but the following briefings highlight the themes that emerged from elections in 6 countries and the European Union. Both elections that we haven’t been able to include here and those that are upcoming, such as the recently called election in Japan that’s set for Oct. 27, will also affect the field and related industries.

June 6–9

The June European Union parliamentary elections seemed, at first glance, to maintain the status quo. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s center-right-wing group of parties kept power. But the full results also laid bare the rise of populism and far-right politics on the Continent. “The shift towards the far right raises a number of concerns,” says Thomas Jørgensen, director of policy coordination and foresight at the European University Association (EUA). “But it is unlikely to derail research, innovation, and higher education policy. The biggest group in the European Parliament stays the same and, in the past, there has been broad consensus on these topics.” Meanwhile, a report from former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi, developed at the request of the European Commission, has spurred discussion about Europe’s competitiveness in Brussels and beyond.

Cabinet reorganization: There has been a change in the remit of the top jobs in government. One commissioner used to manage education, innovation, and research, so coordination between the themes was relatively straightforward. But an executive vice president for people, skills, and preparedness is now responsible for education, separate from the commissioner for start-ups, research, and innovation. The EUA warned against such a split in responsibilities.

Academic freedom: In 2023, the European Parliamentary Research Service published a white paper outlining “major breaches of and threats to academic freedom” in the union. The paper noted the growing influence of populist political parties, social media and university governance reforms, and some countries’ drops in an index based on five academic freedom factors. The Guild of European Research-Intensive Universities wrote an open letter on Sept. 20 to push for academic freedom protections. It’s unclear how the EU might proceed.

Research funding: After the UK’s divorce from the EU in 2020, there was a financial hole in the EU’s flagship research program, Horizon Europe. In 2023, however, an agreement was reached for the UK to rejoin the funding platform, pumping an extra €2.43 billion (about $2.71 billion) back into the budget each year. But that deal expires in 2027. The EU is still working on its arrangements for Horizon Europe’s successor, which will fund scientific research from 2028 to 2034; part of that planning will include discussions with the UK (which also had an election in 2024).

June 30–July 7

This summer, a coalition of left-wing parties, the New Popular Front, won in legislative elections against a challenge from the far-right party National Rally. But no party was strong enough to secure clear support. After an unusual 2-month delay, President Emmanuel Macron chose Michel Barnier from within the Republicans to be prime minister. The Republicans are a right-wing party whose group holds only 47 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Patrick Hetzel, the new higher education and research minister, also belongs to this party, putting him in a fragile position. His strengths lie in his deep knowledge of the sector, as he has held several key positions related to research in the past, including as an adviser to the prime minister in 2007 and, later, as the rapporteur for research funding in the assembly. At the end of 2023, he tabled a resolution to “make the return of our best researchers to France a national priority.”

Research funding: The main challenge facing French research is financial. France spends 2.2% of its gross domestic product on R&D, despite a spending target of 3% of GDP, and it lags behind its main competitors, including the UK and Germany. Public R&D spending accounts for around 1% of GDP, but corporate R&D expenditure remains well below its 2% target, despite generous public support mechanisms like the research tax credit. In this context, the research community is closely watching this autumn’s budget discussions, concerned by initial announcements suggesting that the research budget could be reduced by €500 million (about $560 million) for 2025, while research organizations and universities are already struggling with increased costs because of 3.5% inflation.

Research priorities: Another uncertainty surrounds the future of a research organization reform effort that Macron first announced in December 2023. Among other changes, this plan would create five new research agencies within the main research-performing organizations to strengthen French research in health, climate and biodiversity, agriculture and food, digital technologies, and decarbonized energy. Experts predict the new minister will see the reform through.

April 19–June 1

In India, the main political parties largely agree on many science-related issues. For example, in 2021, when the Narendra Modi–led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government committed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, the Indian National Congress—or Congress Party—shared the same deadline.

These issues are, however, not vote clinchers. National electoral battle lines have been drawn mostly over other issues.

Continuity: The NDA’s approach to science, technology, climate change, and international cooperation is not likely to change substantially in its third term in power. Many of the science-related missions remain core priorities as the country establishes self-reliance in science and technology initiatives.

The country has ambitious renewable energy targets—2030 as the deadline for a 45% less carbon-intensive economy and a 50% renewable component in the energy mix—and plans several programs to achieve them. These plans include the National Green Hydrogen Mission, which the cabinet approved in January 2023, with an initial outlay of 20,000 crore Indian rupees (about $2.4 billion) for encouraging the production of green hydrogen and electrolyzers.

Priorities: This September, nearly 100 days into its fresh term, the government announced Mission Mausam to make India “weather ready and climate smart,” with an outlay of 2,000 crore Indian rupees (about $240 million) for the first 2 years. Apart from better weather forecasting, it seeks to explore weather management and climate adaptations through interventions like cloud seeding.

The government has also invested 6,000 crore Indian rupees (about $720 million) in the National Quantum Mission to create a quantum technology ecosystem in India, and the country is working on crewed missions to the deep sea and a machine for mining the ocean floor. The country’s space policy, approved in 2023, opens the production of spacecraft components and related services to private players. It also offers the state-run Indian Space Research Organization a chance to focus more on research and development and exploratory missions. Plans include a crewed space mission in 2025 and launches of both a space station and an exploratory probe to Venus in 2028.

Traditional knowledge: The government plans to continue supporting what it calls Indian Knowledge Systems. This effort seeks to promote interdisciplinary research that draws from the country’s traditional knowledge in science, medicine, astronomy, mathematics, and more. Validating traditional knowledge—for instance, with regard to the use of traditional herbs—finds favor with the government and some leading institutions, along with skepticism and cynicism from others.

June 2

In June, Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the nation’s first female president. She took office Oct. 1. With a background in environmental engineering and as a former environmental secretary of what’s now Mexico City, Sheinbaum has said she seeks to turn the country into a “global science powerhouse.” But the new president is a member of Morena, the party of the outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who considerably reduced support and funding for science in the country. Despite these conflicting indicators, some signs suggest the state of science may improve during her time in office.

Transformation and change: Sheinbaum plans to elevate the agency that oversees science in the country to the level of a state secretary. This move would create significant potential for transformative change, says Julia Tagüeña, a researcher at the Institute of Renewable Energies and former director of the agency.

Sheinbaum presented her goals for her time in office in a 100-step document. They include achieving technological independence for Mexico and an increased budget for science and technology development. The president plans to create programs to work with international industries in Mexico, including aeronautics and the automotive, maritime, semiconductor, and security technology industries. Also, she will revamp national and international postgraduate scholarship programs, which could boost cooperation between countries in science and industry, Tagüeña says.

Climate change and water: Sheinbaum’s plan also prioritizes combating climate change by aiming to replace petroleum-based energy with clean alternatives such as geothermal power, hydroelectric power, and bioenergy.

She wants to modernize public transportation and transition to hybrid and electric vehicles to lower carbon emissions. In 2023, nearly 80% of Mexico’s electricity came from fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency, and the country was the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter in Latin America.

In recent years, the country has been facing severe droughts and water crises. To tackle water security, Sheinbaum aims to expand water treatment capacity, improve water quality, and implement desalination technologies that minimize damage to marine ecosystems.

Crosscutting science: Tackling many of the country’s biggest issues will require bringing together many disciplines, Tagüeña says. This means successful strategies will incorporate green chemistry, waste management, sustainable agriculture, complexity science, and even social sciences. Companies and industries must also work hand in hand with science to find solutions. It is still too soon to tell if or how Sheinbaum will implement these potential answers. But Hugo Santillan, a sustainable development consultant, thinks it’s good news that she’s considering scientific development as part of her plan, and that now her government needs to develop clear road maps to achieve what she proposed.

May 29

In May, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in the country’s 30-year democratic history. The loss led the party, once led by Nelson Mandela, to forge the Government of National Unity—a coalition of a broad range of political parties, including former adversaries. Rhoanda Jansen van Rensburg, executive director of Ozone Business Consulting, says there has been an uptick in requests for market research for the South African chemical industry since the election. “My personal opinion is that there are positive movements in this market sector in terms of planned support from the government,” she says.

Economic growth focus: The country’s new leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, said in a speech that he wants to turn South Africa into a “construction site” and vows to remove “every obstacle” standing in the way of economic growth. Fears that a weaker ANC would partner with those seeking stronger state control of key resources, such as the mining industry, were allayed as the party instead joined hands with its former opposition, the promarket, center-right Democratic Alliance. That party governs the booming Western Cape province, which has recently attracted significant investments in pharmaceutical manufacturing and R&D.

Since before the election, there have been efforts to transition the country away from its dependence on domestic coal and toward an energy mix featuring more renewable energy, as well as decrease the number and extent of scheduled power outages. The government hopes its green hydrogen push will create much-needed jobs, and the country’s oil and gas giant Sasol, a leader in gas-to-liquid fuel technology, also wants to move toward more sustainable energy sources, its new CEO, Simon Baloyi, told BizNews in August.

Challenges to funding and research: Since the last elections, in 2019, numerous challenges have hampered growth in South Africa. Business R&D has plummeted from more than half of South Africa’s R&D spending in 2008 to a third in 2021. This trend, combined with stagnating public R&D spending, has eaten into the government’s goal of spending 1.5% of its gross domestic product on R&D. In 2021, the proportion was just 0.62%. National patenting activity has also dropped, and certain workers—especially trained engineers—are in short supply.

International concerns: On top of the domestic challenges, international market pressures are also growing, says Natasha Naidoo, head of industrial adhesives at Henkel South Africa. “The chemical industry is facing a significant transformation with pressures from commoditization, new competition, global supply chain disruptions, and shifts in digitization and feedstocks. Companies that don’t adapt quickly risk losing their competitiveness.”

April 10

Last year, the South Korean government announced significant cuts to the national R&D budget—the first decrease in over 30 years. Since becoming president in 2022, Yoon Suk Yeol of the conservative People Power Party has declared that he will eradicate what he has called power cartels in certain fields in the country, including science and technology. While no evidence has substantiated his claims of corruption, their consequences have been immediate and palpable: industry-wide layoffs, including shutdowns of numerous projects and laboratories, ravaged the first half of 2024. In April’s midterm elections, Yoon’s party experienced a crushing defeat.

Midterm changes: The administration has since promised to restore the budget but declined to elaborate where and how funds will return, if they will at all, says Mingi Shin, a scientist who has protested the government’s actions.

Notably, investments toward renewable energy and carbon neutrality from the previous administration have become “practically defunct,” Shin says. For other federally funded projects, policies now require researchers to prove the projects’ relevance to 12 strategic goals that can quickly generate profit. This requirement presents challenges to basic science, says Yu Myoungsan, administrative director at South Korea’s National Institute for Mathematical Sciences.

“The scientific enterprise is what powered our rapid ascension up the economic ladder,” Yu says. “Now we’re ignoring that foundation—but at what cost?”

Drops in R&D budget: For the first time since 1991, the federal R&D budget has experienced a decrease. The budget for 2024 is 16.7% lower than the previous year.

The current government emphasizes a small government. As a result, it has been reducing funds across industries previously dependent on federal subsidies, including health care, telecommunications, and science research and development. Many of those not directly affected by the funding issues have either turned to foreign investors or left the country.

Environmental impacts: In addition to making budget cuts, the administration has walked back commitments to environmental sustainability and carbon neutrality, two landmark policies from the previous administration.

July 4

After 14 years of Conservative rule, which included the UK’s departure from the European Union, the July election saw the left-of-center Labour Party win a sizable majority. In the run-up to the election, Labour announced it wanted research agencies to develop 10-year spending plans instead of the current period of 3 years. The party also said it would reduce animal testing in experiments where possible and generate almost all the country’s electricity from zero-carbon means by 2030.

Research funding: The new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is preparing to deliver a budget for Parliament’s approval on Oct. 30, and the mood is gloomy. He has blamed the previous administration for leaving what he calls a £22 billion (about $29 billion) “black hole” in the public finances. The parties have sparred over the veracity of the claim, but nevertheless, Starmer has said the forthcoming budget will be “painful” but will provide “for long-term good.” The previous Conservative government had promised to invest £22 billion annually in research by 2024–25 but later delayed that plan to 2026–27. Martin Smith, head of the policy lab at the biomedical research foundation Wellcome Trust, is calling on Labour to avoid further changes. “I don’t see any signals that we’re looking at a cut in spending, but we’re asking for the increases not to be delayed again,” he says.

Tuition fees: The government sets university fees for UK students; currently they are £9,250 (about $12,000) per year, and there hasn’t been an increase since 2017. Had fees risen with inflation, they would now be £12,000 (about $16,000) per year, according to an analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Nick Jennings, vice chancellor of Loughborough University, says the freeze is unsustainable. “Our costs haven’t been fixed since 2017. There are significant worries about deficits at universities, and some are considering closing departments, including chemistry,” he says. Aston University and the University of Hull have already said they will close their chemistry departments. The Labour government’s official policy, however, is not to raise tuition fees.

International collaboration: When the UK left the EU in 2020, it also quit the Horizon Europe research initiative. It rejoined the funding program in 2023 with a deal that lasts until 2027. Many UK researchers want to keep close links with the EU indefinitely. The new prime minister has made efforts to reset the tone of the relationship with the union, and a recent position paper suggests the government is “interested in potentially associating” with the next iteration of the EU’s research funding program.