New Date For Peak Oil Production

A team of petroleum engineers has reworked a basic model for gauging conventional crude oil production and determined that world output may peak in 2014, nearly a decade earlier than previous projections. The analysis could speed up moves to conserve oil and intensify already intense efforts to develop biofuels and other alternative energy sources.

Several models based on historical oil production and known oil reserves have been developed to forecast when global oil production will reach a maximum and start to decline. One of the most popular models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. However, the Hubbert model is now considered insufficient to account for increasingly complex oil-production cycles.

Ibrahim S. Nashawi of Kuwait University and colleagues revamped the Hubbert model to account for technology changes and ecological, economic, and political influences on production trends in 47 oil-producing countries (Energy Fuels, DOI: 10.1021/ef901240p). They conclude world oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1% per year and global production will peak in 2014. They also project OPEC oil production, which involves 78% of world reserves, will peak in 2026. The researchers note that a forecast like theirs isn't perfect and the results should be considered with caution in making public policy decisions.