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The discussion about global warming could be continued forever without any clear-cut results (C&EN, Sept. 10, page 5; C&EN, Oct. 29, page 3). This is understandable, because Earth's climate is a highly complex system that is determined by numerous parameters in a nonlinear way. Even today's models are not capable of simulating the climate in a completely satisfactory way.
The more immediate problem threatening our civilization is the Peak Oil problem. Peak Oil is the point in time when global production of crude oil reaches its pinnacle and then enters into a permanent decline. This problem, unlike global warming, is relatively simple and transparent. It depends primarily on three parameters: demand for crude oil, production capacity, and new discovery of oil and gas fields. All serious studies of this development indicate that humanity will be in great trouble because of a fossil energy shortage long before the climate change will become a real major threat.
Alex von Zelewsky
Brissago, Switzerland
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